Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 29.964121 32.188071 34.584217 37.373363 40.550820 44.082380 48.339042
2025-04-20 27.334581 30.450202 34.020988 38.475699 43.972330 50.657428 59.610986
2025-04-27 25.692910 29.323766 33.664006 39.352755 46.804843 56.540985 70.809850
2025-05-04 24.402425 28.375204 33.283041 39.977558 49.199275 62.032526 82.500452
2025-05-11 23.035656 27.160343 32.383776 39.732050 50.268891 65.722865 92.276347
2025-05-18 21.835256 26.037798 31.469507 39.311392 50.952012 68.844255 101.815621
2025-05-25 20.693434 24.898793 30.423624 38.570039 51.016167 70.931733 110.015022
2025-06-01 19.666222 23.840822 29.400995 37.748250 50.824218 72.511434 117.636480
2025-06-08 18.689647 22.793130 28.319195 36.737479 50.200182 73.216223 123.633383
2025-06-15 18.409142 22.671092 28.515209 37.636982 52.744515 79.974050 145.517152
2025-06-22 17.835987 22.110095 28.043174 37.460035 53.444853 83.381032 160.852720
2025-06-29 17.169999 21.386499 27.292277 36.782316 53.191181 84.838092 171.639206
2025-07-06 16.368972 20.464949 26.242305 35.616939 52.066672 84.559632 178.162037
2025-07-13 16.204639 20.443036 26.524107 36.631161 55.032230 93.689630 221.114963
2025-07-20 15.997627 20.345078 26.679059 37.439973 57.720285 102.968717 275.399144
2025-07-27 15.748055 20.169907 26.700311 38.015582 60.028107 112.049431 343.237826
2025-08-03 15.332966 19.730359 26.283479 37.789460 60.664648 116.972139 399.044393
2025-08-10 14.910358 19.262299 25.797329 37.401851 60.910502 120.907700 458.218852
2025-08-17 14.450623 18.721729 25.170999 36.718224 60.438152 122.651627 506.823645
2025-08-24 14.001660 18.182842 24.525329 35.959648 59.723104 123.521657 552.537227
2025-08-31 13.540049 17.611197 23.805827 35.025495 58.528319 122.648938 581.320344
2025-09-07 13.462695 17.622078 24.030038 35.856876 61.453671 136.208748 855.513032
2025-09-14 13.192947 17.327277 23.738955 35.693408 62.033483 141.995729 1082.453148